In Counter-Strike 2, upsets aren’t a bug but a feature. The potential for upsets adds excitement for fans as they can win big by betting on the underdog. But how common are upsets in the highest tiers of play in CS2?
Abios has analysed esports and betting data from Counter-Strike 2 Majors since 2022 to locate the largest upsets by looking at matches won by teams with odds of 2.50 or higher.
Fans tune in and head to sportsbooks to root for their favourite teams and watch intense matches play out, and it’s all the more exciting when an underdog team fights their way to a victory when it’s least expected. This makes fans more invested, meaning uncertain matchups are key opportunities for engagement for your sportsbook.
Are you making the most of these moments?
1. Natus Vincere vs. MIBR – Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024
Tournament Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024, Elimination Stage
Date 2024-12-05
| Map: Inferno, Bo1 | NAVI | mibr |
| Odds | 1.25 | 3.65 |
| Score | 11 | 13 |
| Top player | Aleksi ‘Aleksib’ Virolainen | Felipe ‘insani’ Yuji |
In this match, the odds were 3.65 on mibr winning, heavily in NAVI’s favour. At the time of the Shanghai Major, NAVI was actually ranked the top team in the world. Meanwhile, Mibr were in 17th place. It really seemed like it was a sure win for NAVI, but the Counter-Strike 2 community was wrong.
The match between NAVI and NIBR on Inferno was incredibly close, making it an exciting time for bettors throughout the game. At the time, NAVI and Mibr didn’t have a lot of history competing against one another, allowing Mibr to throw off the top team throughout. In the end, the score was 13-11 in favour of Mibr, throwing off a lot of pick ’ems and bets.
This was an incredibly memorable match because Mibr defied the odds in such an unfavourable matchup. The closeness throughout had fans invested—it seemed it could really go in either direction, so you couldn’t look away.
2. Virtus.pro vs. Imperial Esports – PGL Major Copenhagen 2024
Tournament PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, Elimination Stage
Date 2024-03-21
| Map: Inferno, Bo1 | Virtus.Pro | Imperial Esports |
| Odds | 1.29 | 3.35 |
| Score | 6 | 13 |
| Top player | David ‘n0rb3r7’ Danielyan | Kaiky ‘noway’ Santos |
Virtus.pro looked like they would get an EZ win in this match against Imperial Esports. The odds reflected that with 1.29 on Virtus.pro. Esports fans were shocked when it became a one-sided blood bath.
At the time, Virtus.pro was ranked #10 on HTLV (April 2024), and Imperial Esports was way down at 31st, a jarring difference. Despite Virtus.pro’s incredible Major record and veteran players at the time, Imperial Esports had the aggression, grit, and determination to come out on top, ending the match 13-6.
The CS2 community was torn about this outcome. Inferno was one of Virtus.pro’s strongest maps, how could they lose to the less experienced Brazilian team? Many players wondered if best-of-ones were fair, but some noted that Imperial Esports had been playing incredibly. While one-sided, the match was an impressive display of Imperial’s skills, glueing naysayers to Twitch and sportsbooks.
3. Complexity Gaming vs. FlyQuest — Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024
Tournament Perfect World Shanghai Major, Opening Stage
Date 2024-11-30
| Map: Anubis, Bo1 | Complexity Gaming | FlyQuest |
| Odds | 1.37 | 2.95 |
| Score | 6 | 13 |
| Top player | Michael ‘Grim’ Wince | Joshua ‘INS’ Potter |
This match had 2.95 odds on FlyQuest winning. Complexity was ranked #14 at the time, while FlyQuest was a bit behind at #20. The teams were close in the rankings, and fans were equally torn at the time, creating plenty of debates and tension. All in good fun, of course. Many wanted Complexity’s Ricky “floppy” Kemery to dominate in hopes of proving North America’s talents in the FPS title.
In the end, FlyQuest dominated the match 13-6, which only heated up the fan rivalry even more.
4. FURIA vs. Legacy — PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024
Tournament PGL Major Copenhagen 2024, Opening Stage
Date 2024-03-17
| Map: Ancient, Bo1 | FURIA Esports | Legacy |
| Odds | 1.41 | 2.80 |
| Score | 13 | 16 |
| Top player | Kaike ‘KSCERATO’ Cerato | Bruno ‘latto’ Rebelatto |
This was an intensely close match on Ancient, but ultimately, underdogs Legacy pulled out the W against fan-favourites FURIA. The odds were 1.41 on FURIA, who were #17 at the time, versus Legacy’s #53 (April 2024) on HLTV rating.
It seemed like a sure thing for FURIA, with one fan even stating that this would be one of the easiest wins of the team’s life. Having Gabriel “FalleN” Toledo made FURIA’s victory seem even more imminent. However, once the match began, esports viewers were shocked at FURIA’s weak performance early on.
5. MOUZ vs. Team GamerLegion — BLAST.tv Major Paris 2023
Tournament BLAST.tv Major Paris 2023, Challengers Stage
Date 2023-05-09
| Map: Mirage, Overpass, Bo3 | MOUZ | Team GamerLegion |
| Odds | 1.45 | 2.70 |
| Score | 0 | 2 |
| Top player | David ‘frozen’ Čerňanský | Frederik ‘acoR’ Gyldstrand |
It seemed almost like a no-brainer to root for MOUZ, but some hardcore CS2 fans felt GamerLegion could pull an upset.
Why? At the time, MOUZ had not competed in many official tournaments, leaving some fans concerned that they would be rusty and lack knowledge of the current strategy. This ended up being true, with GamerLegion getting a convincing 2-0 win.
Honorable Mention: Metizport vs. Astralis — BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
Tournament BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025, Regional Qualifier
Date 2025-04-16
| Map: Inferno, Mirage, Ancient Bo3 | Astralis | Metizport |
| Odds | 1.44 | 2.70 |
| Score | 1 | 2 |
| Top player | Martin ‘stavn’ Lund | Hampus ‘hampus’ Poser |
It was a close match, taking both teams across Inferno, Mirage, and Ancient before a winner was declared. At #40 on HLTV’s ranking as of April 2025, Metizport was not on many fans’ radars, especially compared to Astralis, the 13th best team in the world at that time.
Going into the match, some fans even called Astralis “lucky” for being paired with what seemed like an easy win for the iconic roster. One fan even said it would be “impossible” for Astralis to lose. However, Metizport took Inferno 13-9, which swayed some viewers. Astralis fought back with a 13-7 win on Mirage and fans believed that the superstar team would keep that momentum and kill Metizport’s chances. To many fans’ surprise, Metizport took the final map after a close fight, making it one of the most shocking outcomes of the year thus far.
Upsets: Patterns & Takeaways
Can you really predict upsets? The answer is no, which makes it all the more exciting for viewers and bettors. However, there are a few ways to predict that an upset could happen.
Bo1
First, all of the biggest Counter-Strike 2 upsets occurred during best-of-ones. This is because it’s a much shorter series where dominant teams don’t have time to learn from mistakes and surprise strategies in the previous map. By the time they catch on, it’s over. There is a much better chance of an upset when it’s a Bo1 match-up.
Performance
Second, check out the teams’ performances in the months leading up to the match. Did the dominant team have weak showings recently? Conversely, has the underdog team shown impressive teamwork or shocking strategies lately? Did either team make changes to the roster?
H2H
Third, check if there’s any history between the two teams. Have they competed against each other before? Maybe one team excelled over the other due to the map they were on.
Upsets Are Good For Sportsbooks
Upsets are quite exciting (and sometimes upsetting) for esports fans, keeping them engaged ahead of and during the match. Sportsbooks can capitalise on these momentous moments in a number of ways.
Counter-Strike 2 Bet builder
Promote bet builder combos on your sportsbook, including popular underdog teams that seem promising in the upcoming tournament. This allows bettors to select various outcomes and combine matches, making tournaments more engaging to follow. It can also act as a way to make matches with less dramatic odds more exciting.
Content Widgets
Dynamic content widgets can keep bettors engaged during the match, staying on your sportsbook to learn more about the match, team, and players as the action unfolds. This includes player performance tracking, live scores, and embedded streams. Underdog Watch segments on your sportsbook can also emphasise upcoming matches with exciting odds.
Being part of Kambi, Abios allows 40+ operators around the world access leading Counter-Strike odds. Utilising proprietary data widgets, operators can build an engaging and endemic esports solution attracting fans at scale.
Interested? Read more here.
